The growing use of air conditioners in homes and offices around the world will be one of the top drivers of global electricity demand over the next three decades, according to a new analysis  by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that stresses the urgentneed for policy action to improve cooling effi ciency. A new IEA report – The Future of Cooling – shows that without new efficiency standards the world will be facing a ‘cold crunch’ from the growth in cooling demand in coming decades. Global energy demand
from air conditioners is expected to triple by 2050, requiring new electricity capacity equal to the combined electricity capacity of the United States, the European Union (EU) and Japan today, it said in a statement. The global stock of air conditioners in buildings will grow to 5.6 billion by 2050, up from 1.6 billion today, which amounts to 10 new ACs sold every second for the next 30 years, according to the report.

Using air conditioners and electric fans to stay cool already accounts for about a fifth of the total electricity used in buildings around the world – or 10 per cent of all global electricity consumption today. But as incomes and living standards improve in many developing countries, the growth in AC demand in hotter regions is set to soar. AC use is expected to be the second-largest source of global electricity demand growth after the industry sector and the strongest driver for buildings by 2050. One crucial factor is that the effi ciency of these new ACs can vary widely. For example, ACs sold in Japan and the EU are typically 25 per cent more efficient than those sold in the United States and China. Effi ciency improvements could cut the energy growth from AC demand in half through mandatory energy performance standards.

The report identifies key policy actions. In an Efficient Cooling Scenario, which is compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the IEA finds that through stringent minimum energy performance standards and other measures such as labelling, the average energy efficiency of the stock of ACs worldwide could more than double
between now and 2050. This would greatly reduce the need to build new electricity infrastructure to meet rising demand. Making cooling more efficient will also yield multiple benefits, making it more affordable, more secure and more sustainable, and saving as much as USD 2.9 trillion in investment, fuel and operating costs. Today, less than a third of global households own an air conditioner. In countries such as the United States and Japan, more than 90 per cent of households have air conditioning, compared to just 8 per cent of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world, it added. The issue is particularly sensitive in the fastest-growing nations, with the biggest increase happening in hot  countries like India – where the share of AC in peak electricity loadcould reach 45 per cent in 2050, up from 10 per cent today without action. This will require large investments in new power plants to meet peak power demand at night, which cannot be met with solar PV technology, it said.

(Source: Times of India, Mumbai, May 16, 2018)